This 2021 economic forecast questions economists’ predictions of a roaring recovery in the second half of 2021, looks at the state of CRE sectors today and checks in with the real estate cycle.
In May, I think we all thought (or at least hoped) that the COVID -19 situation would be under control by now. Well, it isn’t nor is it clear what the long-term impact on our lives will be. Commercial Real Estate Today? Six months ago when this all started, I posted the blog, “Coronavirus Pandemic Impacts Commercial Real Estate Sectors.” It now makes sense to revisit this topic again. Let’s look at the status and possible future of the various commercial real estate sectors. Industrial: Can’t Build ‘Em Fast Enough It’s fair to say that Industrial has been the least affected sector and has benefited the most from the acceleration of online shopping. Developers can’t build buildings fast enough, especially not the huge, specialized buildings needed by companies like Amazon and Apple. Investors are buying them before they are finished or leased. This is an ominous sign and could lead
To quote the Greek Philosopher Heraclitus, “Change is the only constant in life.” As we stare down the barrel of the coronavirus rifle, we must ask ourselves what will future changes be like. Which changes will be temporary? Which changes will be permanent? Impact of Coronavirus In my last two blogs, I’ve reviewed the impact of coronavirus on the restaurant industry as well as other commercial real estate sectors. Here, I contemplate the impact of the coronavirus on the economy, urbanization, healthcare and, perhaps most interesting, people and their habits. Impacts from major societal events do not show up for a while. For example, people had fewer children following the 2008 economic crisis because they felt financially insecure; however, we are just seeing this impact now in schools, as current graduating classes outsize current elementary school classes. That recession also profoundly affected the housing market; people became more inclined to
Unemployment is increasing rapidly, businesses are closing, shelter-in-place is the order of the day, and experts warn this could be the deadliest week we’ve seen yet. It feels like the Apocalypse. At the same time, the weather is beautiful, the trees turn green and flowers blossom—giving us hope. All Commercial Real Estate Sectors Somehow Impacted In my last blog, I focused on the hard-hit restaurant industry. In this blog, I look at other commercial real estate sectors—all experiencing the impact of the virus and the resulting business interruption. Hotels One of the Hardest Hit CBRE forecasts “hotel revenue to decline by an average of 37% for 2020, with properties in high tourist and convention business areas getting clobbered.” Hotels have been in expansion mode, in both number of units and brands. Marriott is a good example. With most hotels, however, Marriott does not own their properties. They merely operate the
You never see the lightning bolt that hits you. Coronavirus COVID-19 has taken us all by surprise and continues to baffle us with its strength and uncertainty. It’s difficult to write a post about the current climate because it changes daily, hourly even. Every day, we hear of communities requiring residents to shelter-in-place as more orders are announced, clarifying which businesses can operate and which must shutter their doors. Real Estate Recessions: Causes Real estate market recessions are NOT always the result of real-estate activities, such as overbuilding, loose underwriting or easy financing. Sure, there have been real estate recessions caused by these actions, but not always. Often there are non-real estate triggers—think of the mid-70’s oil embargo, the Iraq War, inflation in the 80’s and 9/11. These events usually expose underlying market weaknesses and cause the debt markets to lock up, resulting in sharp declines in real estate fundamentals.
Recent NREI article “Low U.S. Interest Rates Are Fueling a Bubble in Commercial Real Estate” claims it is not a matter of if the CRE bubble will pop, but when it will pop. I wholeheartedly agree with author Jay Rollins’ assessment and strategy. We’ve already seen investor push back on properties purchased post-2015 that are now back on the market. The current owners paid too much, thinking prices would increase, but in my opinion, the market has flattened—with further appreciation less likely than price deflation. The spreads between real estate yields and other financial instruments are historically low, and like Rollins, I have to believe that interest rates will increase sooner rather than later. I certainly don’t see them decreasing. The best opportunity for upside today is in new development, which has considerably more risk than buying existing assets. Historically, developers get caught by recession and rising interest rates. This time will be
Late in the Cycle As discussed in previous blogs, I believe we are very late in the real estate cycle, a period which is characterized by fully priced assets and increasing ground-up development. Yet, I keep hearing the term “value-add” tossed around both by brokers trying to sell properties with low current yields and buyers convinced that rents will continue to increase and add value. I am skeptical. In addition, with fewer transactions occurring, lenders are becoming more aggressive by offering longer “interest-only” periods and equity funds are becoming lenders to make up for the lack of good buying opportunities. I find these trends troubling. This is the sort of activity that usually pushes the market over the edge. The Real Deal In a true value-add market, sellers are usually under pressure, rents are low, and vacancies are high. Buyers in this market are more risk-tolerant and are focused on
Heading for a Correction? A BisNow article from earlier this year directly asks the question on everyone’s mind: “When is the correction going to hit?” In “From Bullish To Bearish: Tips To Prepare For The Inevitable Real Estate Downturn,” the author says not to worry so much about when it hits, but more so with how prepared you will be when it does. The article offers these four tips: Negotiate long-term leases Pursue Rehabs and Upgrades Stop Putting Off Maintenance Embrace Technology Stan’s Viewpoint For the most part, I agree with this article. I would add that the strategy for a given property really depends on the property’s current status. That status will dictate whether to sell (if a key lease has just been extended), upgrade (a longer-hold strategy) or refinance. I would caution this: If an owner is looking at new financing, the debt/value ratio and debt service coverage should
My last blog “Not Your Standard Recession and Recovery” discussed how—due to the disruption in the financial markets—the most recent real estate recovery was anything but straightforward. In addition, this real estate recovery has experienced crosscurrents, which have made it even more unpredictable. These include the impact of global markets, technology disruptors, high construction costs and demographic shifts. Global Market + Economy Impact As world economies become more intertwined, foreign markets more broadly impact the U.S. economy. The Chinese economy’s size and its growth impacted demand for U.S.-made products, resulting in drastic increases in some material prices. Weak European economies and actions of European central banks created greater demand for U.S. Treasury notes, which has kept interest rates artificially low. More foreign investors have sought U.S. assets, including real estate, with safety being a greater priority than yield. All of these factors contribute to a spike in U.S. property values.
Most recessions and recoveries are straightforward. There’s oversupply, too much money and aggressive lending. The economy goes into recession. Values plummet, lenders foreclose, and occupancies and rents go down. Everything is distressed. Then, distressed assets are sold, the economy improves and rents and occupancies increase. Happy days are here again. But the Great Recession of 2007-09 and subsequent recovery have been anything but straightforward. Due to financial chaos and a slow-to-recover economy, the road from the valley to the mountain top has been long and winding. Financial Chaos In 2007-2008, government policy and deregulation encouraged overaggressive lending and leveraging of lender’s balance sheets, not unlike when the government deregulated the Savings and Loans and changed the tax laws in 1986. Not only did this create a deep recession, but it also caused a near collapse of the U.S. financial system. So, how did this impact real estate? Bank Failures +
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