Development Market Phase: How Long Will It Last?
The business cycle is “long in the tooth,” and the real estate cycle is also very, very mature. Last year, in Timing the Real Estate Cycle, I focused on real estate cycle phases, which included Recession, Distressed Selling, Value Creation (Stage 1 + Stage 2), Mature Investment Market, Development Market and Overdevelopment + Bust. Right now, we are in the Development Market phase. Here’s how I previously described it; see if it rings true. Rents and values are up. Vacancies are down. New construction accelerates. Investors…are flush with cash. Lenders are aggressive. Values of existing properties are peaking. There is simply more capital chasing deals than there are opportunities. The downside risk is increasing. The “nothing can go wrong” mentality is taking over. New project announcements are appearing almost daily. Development Market Phase: Alive and Well Here’s what I see now: Transaction volume on the sale/investment side of business has
